Beating the Number
by Ross Benjamin
It still amazes me when I read or hear game analysis. It's apparent the vast majority of amateur handicappers just don't get it.
Long details on what one thinks will happen in a game, analysis on who the players are on both sides of the ball, and listing players who are out as a result of injury or suspension. Using these factors to predict who will cover a pointspread are utterly ridiculous. This business of sports wagering and professional handicapping comes down to one factor that outweighs all the rest: beating the number.
Thus, the first order of business to address, as it applies to this subject, is to consider the gentlemen who set the lines in Las Vegas, the offshore casinos in the Caribbean, or any licensed sportsbook anywhere in the world. These experienced individuals are among the sharpest and highly skilled professionals as you will find in any business across the globe. They leave no stone unturned, no factor disregarded, and no conditions ignored in their calculations when setting the lines on each and every game on the board.
Factors such as injuries, suspensions, weather, coaching, history, etc. have already been calculated into to every line. So in essence, they have already done most of the homework for you. Show me an individual that looks at a pointspread on a game and thinks they have uncovered an advantage by something the linesmakers have missed, and I'll show you someone who will lose a lot of money over the long term.
When explaining all this to a client or an individual who aspires to be a successful professional sports handicapper, the questions asked are predictable. So let me answer some of the most common ones.
Ross, if all you are saying is true, then what is the first thing that you look at in evaluating a pointspread?
My answer to this question, without hesitation, is to learn to think like a linesmaker. Remember that if a line looks too good to be true then you can be rest assured that it is, or you are missing an important factor somewhere in the equation.
The plain and simple truth of the matter is that sportsbooks just don't give money away or provide you with an advantage, ever. Show me a case where either of these factors is found not to be true and I will show you a linesmaker that will be unemployed in an abrupt fashion.
This applies to any form of legalized gambling when it pertains to playing against the house. The Las Vegas casinos and sportsbooks have thrived for many years and not because they are losing money.
As a result, the best handicappers in this business are the ones who have had experience on both sides of the table. This is not to say that you can't be successful if you have not, but those that have, hold an edge above the rest.
OK, I understand that point Ross. So, how does the linesmaker arrive at setting the pointspread on a particular game?
There are a combination of determining factors. Like with any highly-technical calculation there is always a foundation, followed by derivatives of the foundation.
As is standard practice across the industry, setting a line all starts with what we call power ratings. Each individual team is assigned a power rating number based on numerous factors and intangibles that are too intricate in detail to discuss here. And quite frankly, the details are not pertinent unless you plan to be a professional linesmaker.
These power ratings are adjusted daily in accordance with results and strength of schedule. Each individual linesmaker has their own set of power ratings, but rest assured that 99.9 percent of the time they are all on the same page and are without any significant disparity.
Then each team has a calculated number that is added when playing at home. Depending on the particular sport, whether it be professional or college, these numbers usually range from as low as two to as high as five depending on a particular team's perceived home-field or homecourt strength.
Now let me give a quick example of power rating calculations using power numbers that I have attained from a very credible source, the Sagarin ratings. Specifically, we are going to calculate Game 3 of the NBA Western Conference Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Utah Jazz that took place on May 9, 2008. So that we don't make this more confusing than it needs to be, we will round the numbers off to the nearest half-point.
First a number has to be assigned to the Utah Jazz homecourt advantage. Without a doubt, Utah has merited a full five-point homecourt advantage as a result of posting a 39-5 record at home this season. Now we do the calculation.
Utah has a power rating of 96.0, a strength of schedule rating of 90.5, and a homecourt rating of 5.0. That adds up to a cumulative number of 191.5. The Lakers have a power rating of 98.0 and strength of schedule rating of 90.5 adding up to 188.5. Now take the greater number (191.5) attached to Utah and subtract the number assigned to the Lakers (188.5) and the result is 3.0.
So without anything else factored in, Utah should open as a 3-point favorite. However, now the linesmaker adjusts the number based on what he perceives public perception to be.
The general public's feeling is likely to be that the Jazz, down 2-0 in the series, will be playing with more urgency. Now combine that with the fact they have a win percentage of .886 at home this season. Plus, they are 16-4 (80 percent) against the spread as a home favorite of 8 1/2 points or less this season.
With those factors considered, an additional point was added to the Jazz, who opened as a 4-point favorite. Sure enough, the public money went to Utah and the Jazz closed anywhere from a 5- to 5 1/2-point favorite across the board. The Jazz ended up winning the game 104-99.
Now, don't misconstrue my line of reasoning. Linesmakers aren't setting a line hoping to get all the action to one side. That is the furthest thing from the truth. In a perfect world, they would get equal action on both sides of a game and would make their money on their 10 percent juice.
However, most of the time it's not a perfect world. And having said that, the general public will tend to be on the right side 52 percent or less of the time, which equates to a profit for the house. That leads me to the final question.
How are we going to beat the books over the long haul Ross?
That is the most important question of them all. There has to be a proven method to your madness. You must find a niche which, once discovered, must be maintained with consistency and discipline. And you must realize that once you find that niche, it may require small adjustments along the way.
The most important thing to keep in mind is there are no get-rich-quick schemes in sports wagering that succeed for any prolonged period of time. Sports wagering is a marathon, not a sprint.
There is no miracle worker out there that is going to win with 70 percent or 80 percent of his selections over the long haul, despite what some in the industry might tell you. You must be cognizant of the fact that such individuals are nothing but con artists or very good salesman using the sports handicapping industry as a way to milk money out of gullible and vulnerable individuals.
They are selling you on what you want to hear and have no regard for ethics or honesty. Most importantly, they can't provide you with any proven or documented track record of winning over an extended period of time. They are just hoping they get lucky, win the first couple of selections they give you, then convince you that winning at that rate is something that will never end.
My niche started with a good fundamental and foundational base. One of the many factors included in that base is the ability to recognize value in certain situations.
An example of this is a college basketball home underdog that has a strong homecourt and a winning record on the season. I deem a team to have a strong homecourt if they have won a minimum of 80 percent of their home games over an average of a three-year period. In college basketball, that usually amounts to the last 40 home games, which translates to 32 or more wins over that span.
The same theory can be used for college football with some differences in the time frame and numbers. In college football, I use a five-year parameter that averages out to be the last 28 played at home. I then use 22 wins or more of the last 28 played at home (78 percent or better) as my parameter. These are just a couple of my handicapping fundamentals, which are also subject to common sense factors.
The niche that really has elevated my ability to pick winners is technical handicapping. I have been fortunate enough to invest $15,000 into handicapping software that is as strong a tool as you can possibly have in your hands. This intricate piece of software has enabled me to analyze any situation that may arrive in the NFL, NBA, NCAA football and NCAA basketball.
With the use of this powerful software, I have been able to develop winning systems and angles. I often look back and wonder how I was able to succeed prior to obtaining this software. The truth of the matter is, I did succeed but this has just allowed me to enhance my ability and increase my winning percentages by three to five percent annually. That may not seem to be a lot to a novice, but if you do the math just based on $100 wager per game over the course of one year, the increased profit becomes quite substantial.
That takes me to the differences between betting systems versus trends. There seems to be a major misconception out there in the general public that there is no difference between the two. Quite simply, a trend applies to a specific team. For example, the Kansas City Chiefs are 40-15-2 against the spread since 1980 as a home underdog. This applies to the Chiefs and the Chiefs only.
Trends are not as effective as they once were 10 to 15 years ago. They have taken on less significance in professional sports since the advent of free agency. No longer do you have the same core group of players together on one team for any prolonged length of time. Roster turnover from year to year occurs at a much larger percentage than it had back in the 80's and early 90's.
As a result, trends become more coincidental these days than not. The same applies to college sports where athletes are no longer required to stay in school for an entire four years, nor is there any age requirement per se for those who wish to turn pro.
Betting systems are a whole other matter. Betting systems apply to all teams in certain or specific situations. Let's use a specific example of a betting system as it applies to the NBA. Any NBA home underdog of 10 or more points that's coming off a home underdog straight up win is 4-26-1 against the spread since 1990. Think about it. That's an 84 percent winning situation versus the spread every time this situation has arisen since 1990.
There were two occasions when this situation came up this season. On Feb. 22, the Los Angeles Clippers were a 114-104 winner as an underdog of 6 1/2 versus the Utah Jazz. The following night they were a home underdog of 11 point versus the Lakers and lost 113-95.
The second example this season involved the Memphis Grizzlies. On March 5, they beat the New Jersey Nets 100-93 as a home underdog of 2 1/2 points. Their following game, on March 8 versus the Boston Celtics, they lost 119-89 as a home underdog of 11 points. So there you have it; two different teams both qualifying on the same betting system with favorable results.
Now, I know there are those who ridicule this system and believe it's an effective handicapping tool. Those types of characters are usually lazy and don't want to take the time to do the research. They are the same types of individuals who constantly look for get-rich schemes on a daily basis. In their minds, it requires too much hard work for the reward.
There are also those individuals that don't have the mental capacity to understand how to use the software that can uncover these types of high percentage systems. Those are what I call the two-minute handicappers who shortcut just about everything they do in life and convince themselves they are getting away with something.
Then there are the individuals that understand the process, know how significant a tool it can be, and either can't afford the investment or aren't willing to spend the money. Whatever the case may be, it's their loss, and I wish them the best of luck because they're going to need it.
The logic of technical handicapping is to expose behavioral patters as it applies to all teams in certain situations based on such things as the current line, current win percentage, current opponent win percentage, and all applicable data as it applies to past results, past lines, point total differential, line differential, rest, revenge, etc.
More importantly, we expose the linesmakers as to how they adjust the lines from week to week based on public perception and recent results. Remember, as I alluded to earlier, the linesmaker always factor injuries, suspensions and weather into the current line, so save yourself the time thinking they may have missed something.
If I can stress any one point above all the rest when handicapping college or professional sports it's all about one thing and that's beating the number. |
